tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8794218664228529106.post5328918315462857836..comments2022-03-27T03:34:40.727-04:00Comments on The Art of Contrarian Trading: Mutual fund flightCarl Futiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8794218664228529106.post-71165892749241310022010-03-08T21:12:17.613-05:002010-03-08T21:12:17.613-05:00agree with Narby, when interest rates go up, stock...agree with Narby, when interest rates go up, stocks should get clobbered as they will have to compete with higher prevailing interest rate alternatives.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8794218664228529106.post-3054743501156733322010-03-08T17:17:15.897-05:002010-03-08T17:17:15.897-05:00Interesting read, Carl...Interesting read, Carl...dcatlowpjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568127255552643343noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8794218664228529106.post-80442887103861012022010-03-08T17:03:17.078-05:002010-03-08T17:03:17.078-05:00The bubble has moved from RE to stocks and bonds, ...The bubble has moved from RE to stocks and bonds, with a bigger one in bonds.<br /><br />Trouble is, when the bond market pops, it will almost certainly take the stock market with it.<br /><br />PMs will hold on as currency crises commence..! XDDave Narbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10773693145577366704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8794218664228529106.post-8347802594489505662010-03-08T12:51:14.557-05:002010-03-08T12:51:14.557-05:00First of all kudos for Carl’s recent buy signal ea...First of all kudos for Carl’s recent buy signal early February which hit the market low perfectly. This is just plain brilliant. Regarding this post here I am marveling over the mutual fund data for some months now as well. US small caps were and are THE place to be in as they derive their income mostly domestically and profit from a raising US$. The Russell 2000 index is leading the chase here. Why is everyone shying away from US stocks, even selling hand over fist into this bull market? – It is just beyond me. Maybe someone can clue me in.<br /><br />JoeJoehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17141887720434208291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8794218664228529106.post-31396426624512946032010-03-08T11:49:59.755-05:002010-03-08T11:49:59.755-05:00Carl, Great analysis.
However, would you mind ela...Carl, Great analysis.<br /><br />However, would you mind elaborating:<br />1) How do you decide if this is a Contrary signal, versus a Trend Change? Remember back in 1980s when 2 decades of Bull market started in DJIA, more and more household poured money into stocks and hold.<br /><br />That time coincided with Boomer generation gearing to peak income and spending, and that's why stock was a favourite as they have time to take risk. Now?? Baby boomer retiring and need FIX income -- BONDs.<br /><br />What I really want to know is, what is your CONTEXT or BASE of contrary signal, versus recognizing a permanent Structural Trend Change? <br /><br />If market Reaction is any good judgement of Contrary signal, then by now (over a year), money should have already started flowing into Stock Market Fund. I never see a Contrary signal that run over 1 year and counting. When you see Sentiment or money flow hit EXTREME, then the contrary reaction should start SOON, not in this case over 1 year.<br /><br />2) Be careful though, there are Good Bonds, and there are Bad Bonds. Maybe USA is like Japan afterall, and Treasury (not corporate or municipal) may embark like Japan to 1% yield. Be careful.<br /><br />Thanks<br />SeanShawnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08155630920582744324noreply@blogger.com