Tuesday, May 3, 2011

the beat (of pessimism) goes on....and on...and......

Here is an image of the cover of the latest Economist. I love the line chart of a "crash" photoshopped onto Miss Liberty's tablet.

The Economist is a little late to the pessimists' party, but does contribute its bit to the chorus of naysaying. As I have repeatedly emphasized here, the pessimists are going to have to quiet down quite a bit before this bull market ends in the US, and indeed in the rest of the world too.


  1. Everything is wrong with american economy.
    The only thing that can save it is an old fashioned war, where LARGEST Carbon Holder USA raises OIL to $500 sells 1/3 rd or reserves in the futures market and covers all debts internal and external. If USA was not the most powerful nation in the world that would not be possible and we would be worse than GREECE.

    That aside, Market is not rising since April 2010, it is the Dollar declining.

    For EINSTEIN that distinction mattered. I am not sure why it does not matter for US.

    On the purely moral ground it is not even dignified to discuss the damage done to retirees and savers in USA, who
    1) do not know if they get SSecurity
    2) THey knew it will not buy 1/3 rd of what they expected.

    Someone Putting money in pension in 80s put a UDX=161 worth
    Now he/she will get 73.
    This is theft.

    Is this reason enough to be a pessimistic?

    Depends if you are the thief or the victim.
    Ask Dear Bernnke, I bet you he knows.

    In any case, In my opinion, Market is not a bull market, As I indicated to yo many times.

    The only bull market is in ANTIDOLLAR
    We can all think we have bigger homes if we can measure it in my FEET length, but In SHAQUIL's feet it would be very small.

    I would appreciate, if you ever address the issue of relativity, with your otherwise excellent technical work.

    I always enjoy the market knowledge you display, but I always wonder, do you and I live in the same country?

    I am not pessimist. I am realist. I buy SWISSY and gain more than stocks do, because I believe if markets gain it will be all lie.

    As to the Economist, article. Yes, I believe in USA smarts, and power. It has worked for US many times. I hope it works next time too.

    Sometimes I wonder though, is there time when the magic stops. So, i use defensive investments.

    Other than that, I agree with you, as long as USA is the only superpower, we can perhaps manufacture every outcome we like

    Good trading My Very esteemed friend.

  2. Ok, another issue, here.
    I like to point out that, world is not pessimistic at all. I live and travel a lot outside USA.
    There is no pessimism here. UGLY American, has changed with UGLY Chines, UGLY Brazilian, UGLY Israeli, UGLY Indonesia etc.
    World is hardly pessimistic.

    Good Trading Again

  3. Damn, I was thinking we were a little further along in this cycle, and now this Front Page from the Economist! Looks like Mr. Market has room to run.

    Carl, I know of no one who has kept a media diary like you have and doing so has given you great insights to the psychology of the market. Thanks for sharing.

  4. What I find peculiar, and even more of a contrarian case, is that the magazine cover didn't have a direct "cause." It's not like the stock market has corrected greatly, or that there's been a series of disappointing economic and earnings news events. Pessimism for the sake of pessimism.

  5. Great insight and 17 months went fantastic in learning &trading with you.
    You Are Awesome, Sir and thanks for educating me and my friends through your seminar.
    Your last trade was fantastic but we closed @1353.5 from 1346.Amazing learning from you as we tried to concentrate on your every word.
    I am happy to say that I can trade indepedently but ofcourse when hard times come,i immediately seek your support.Your patience for me was always beyond praise words.
    You are a great trader besides being an extremely kind human.A Real Respectable Man!
    We women appreciate you,Sir.
    All the best to you and your family.

  6. Carl, great blogs and insights. I wonder if you've read this article by Gonzalo Lira, and if you care to comment on it ?