Monday, April 25, 2011


Here are images of the front page from The New York Times for this past Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Friday's headline included the phrases "...Darkening Mood..." and "...Pessimism On Economy...". Saturday's headline informed us that "Bad Times Linger...". On Sunday at the top left of page 1 was a story headlined "Stimulus By Fed Is Disappointing..."

I think the New York Times is accurately reflecting (and reinforcing) the public mood at the present time. This is good evidence that no bullish investment crowd of any consequence has built up in the US stock market. Until the public gloom lifts substantially stock prices will only go higher.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

opportunity for the aggressive contrarian

At the top of this post you will see an image of today's front page of The New York Times. This is the first time in quite a while that the stock market was mentioned in the headline. It is a very subdued mention. But it comes a month after the "Apocalypse Now" cover in Newsweek. And the S&P 500 is below its 50 day moving average (blue wavy line on the chart) and above a rising 200 day moving average (red wavy line).

The credit warning by S&P for the USA is complete nonsense. The US governments debt is denominated in dollars which the Federal reserve can print at will. There is no chance whatsoever that the US will default on its dollar denominated debt. Yet on the news yesterday the S&P 500 dropped nearly 2% within an hour of the announcement. Dumb selling if ever there is such a thing.

I think the aggressive contrarian should move to an above average long position from just an average one. Before anything resembling a bear market develops in the US stock market I think we shall see the S&P at 1500 and the Dow at 14000.