In my last post I suggested that aggressive contrarians should wait until the cash S&P 500 closed above its 50 day moving average (red dash arrow) before reducing the current, above-average exposure to stock to below-average levels.
I had envisioned this happening around the 1220 level in the S&P. The market is currently trading there but the 50 day moving average is 30 points above the market. I think it is better to be safe than sorry, so I think aggressive contrarians should take advantage of current prices to reduce their stock market exposure to below-normal levels.
Hi Carl, in such volatile market I'd recommended using the EMA (Exponential). Today EMA50 is at 1232 on ES. Just 3 points away from todays high.
ReplyDeleteI can imagine a top forming for a couple of days before a re-test of the lows.
Carl, there is a sense of urgency in your tone....it is obvious that you are turning (increasingly)bearish which have not been seen for a long time.
ReplyDeleteThank you in advance for sharing your insights.