Friday, August 5, 2011
Here is the media reaction to the latest 12% drop in stocks which I think culminated in high volume, panic selling yesterday.
My favorite image is right above this post and appeared on page one of today's Chicago Tribune business section. In big, black, block letters, the Tribune's business editor leaves no doubt about what he or she thinks you should do!
Above that are images of today's front pages of the Tribune and of the New York Times. The stock market is in the headlines, spread across the front page, in both papers. The emotional content of the headlines is subdued relative to those we saw in 2008-09 but I wouldn't expect to find hysteria in the headlines in a bull market.
The top chart is a daily bar chart of the cash S&P 500 going back to the start of 2010. The most significant thing about this chart is that the 200 day moving average is still rising. Unless and until it drops 2% or more the bull market is entitled to the benefit of the doubt. In a bull market a drop below the moving average is a buying opportunity. Compare this one with the one we saw in 2010 (green dash ovals).
I think this is a buying opportunity for the contrarian investor. The aggressive contrarian strategy I described in my book already has an above average commitment to stocks so no action is called for.
I think that this selling squall will soon pass and that the S&P will resume its bull market advance to new highs above the May top at 1370.