Monday, February 18, 2013

Buy ? Maybe not.

Thanks to Paul Montgomery and Elliott Wave International for bringing my attention to the latest cover of a special, February 18 issue, of Maclean's magazine. Maclean's is the Canadian equivalent of Time magazine here in the US. But the cover story is all about the US stock market.

The cover story quotes Ralph Acampora, a noted US market technician, as asserting that the current bull market is climbing a classic wall of worry. He further more observes that since the public has yet to return to stocks in any significant way (as measured, say, by mutual fund money net inflows) there is a lot of upside potential even from current levels. To be fair, he also says that a "correction" now would be healthy and help to repair any cracks which have developed in the worry wall.

Frankly I am in more or less agreement with Acampora as far as the long term prospects for the US stock market go. However shorter term cracks (like this cover story) have started to appear. This is another piece of evidence which suggests that the US stock market is vulnerable to a correction which easily could take it below its November 2012 and even below its June 2012 low point.

At this juncture I think it makes sense for aggressive contrarian traders to move their stock market exposure down to below average levels. The plan would be to restore average or above average levels of stock market exposure after a drop of 5-10% (or more) in the averages, a drop which I think is coming sooner rather than later.


  1. I like your idea. This is not the time to go all in long positions.

  2. Agree Carl. The S&P has 7 consecutive weeks of gains. We are into the 8th consecutive week right now of gaines. Sequester takes effect next week. The market correction as you say it's near. I'd say March 1 (the day the sequester takes effect) at the latest we see the correction start.