Friday, February 22, 2013

Hyperinflation ahead? Not.

In this post I explained why I thought that fears of imminent high inflation resulting from the Fed's quantitative easing policy were misplaced.

Here is a post by Mark Perry which reports the latest estimate by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland of expected inflation. Their number is an average of 1.53% annual inflation over the next 10 years. This is what they come up with after examining both bond market data as well as survey data from investors and consumers.

Of course expectations can always change. But this survey tells us that that there is no reason to think inflation will increase in any significant way base on the evidence at hand which includes the Fed's current QE policy.


  1. Carl,
    at the rate commodities are dropping, especially copper, I think it is clear that deflation is already here. Copper down 6% this week alone. Markets typically follow. My take.

  2. If you have deflation you have a higher chance of hyperinflation, now lower. There is often deflation right before hyperinflation.