Monday, November 9, 2009

More bearish than at 866

Here is a chart showing the weekly sentiment survey conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors (chart courtesy of The red bars represent the percentage of responses that were bearish, the green bars represent the bullish percentage, while the purple bars at the bottom express the ratio of bulls to bears.

Notice that the bearish percentage is currently higher than it was at the July low of 866 while the bull/bear ratio is lower than it was then. This is one piece of evidence that makes me think the November 2 low is comparable in importance to the July 8 low. If I am right about this then the market has probably started a rally that will carry well past the 1120 level I have been mentioning. How far past 1120? The most optimistic projection would be to the 1240 level. This would put the next top as far above the 1099 top as the 1099 top was above the June 2009 top of 957. Cutting that 140 point difference in half still projects to 1170.

1 comment:

  1. Carl,

    You may add below NYT article on unemplyment as sign that UE has peaked or is about to.